Director general of the department N. URGAMALSUVD
The Monetary Policy and Research Department is responsible for conducting economic analysis, research, and forecasting in support of macroeconomic stability and domestic price stability; formulating monetary policy; compiling and disseminating Mongolia’s monetary, financial, and external sector statistics to the public; and developing and administering big data systems.
I. FUNCTIONS OF THE MONETARY POLICY AND FORECASTING DIVISION
The Monetary Policy and Forecasting Division is responsible for formulating the draft State Monetary Policy Guidelines; conducting forecasting and policy analysis; conducting forecasting and policy analysis; preparing forecasts, analytical documents, and presentations for Monetary Policy Committee meetings; producing medium-term macroeconomic forecasts and policy analysis; enhancing economic modelling, forecasting, and analytical frameworks, and conducting surveys of economic conditions and inflation expectations. In carrying out these core responsibilities, the Division performs the following functions.
The main functions of the Division are to:
- Formulate and consolidate the draft “Monetary Policy Guidelines” and ensure the monetary policy implementation.
- Develop monetary policy recommendations based on medium-term macroeconomic outlooks, projections of key indicators (including inflation, economic growth, and money supply), and related policy analysis, and propose them to the Monetary Policy Committee.
- Prepare the relevant sections of the Monetary Policy Report, including assessments of exchange rate and interest rate developments, real estate market conditions, inflation and economic growth outlooks, risk factors to the inflation outlook, and the rationale and summary of policy decisions.
- Enhance existing models and develop new analytical and forecasting frameworks for economic analysis, and projections.
- Conduct monetary policy communication with the public through statements, speeches, interviews, reports to enhance the effectiveness of policy decicions and monetary policy transmission.
- Develop scenarios for fiscal and and external shocks, as well as for bank credit and climate-related risks, assess their impact on macroeconomic indicators, and provide the results to the relevant departments of the Bank of Mongolia and to the Government.
- Conduct economic and inflation expectation surveys of consumers, producers, researchers, banks, and other relevant stakeholders, and use the results for economic analysis, report the findings to management and publish the results.
- Prepare and provide suggestions on the State Budget of Mongolia and economic development policy documents received from relevant government authorities.
- Serve as the secretariat to the Monetary Policy Committee, organize its meetings, prepare summary minutes, and publish them on the website.
II. FUNCTIONS OF THE MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH DIVISION
The Macroeconomic Analysis and Research Division is responsible for analyzing macroeconomic indicators, producing their short-term projections, and conducting research aimed at supporting policy decision-making.
The main functions of the Division include:
- Conducting analysis of inflation performance and its short-term outlook.
- Analyzing economic growth performance (from both production and expenditure approaches) and producing its near-term forecast.
- Carrying out analysis of the balance of payments’ performance and projecting its short- and medium-term outlook.
- Analyzing the external sector’s developments (demand and prices for key export and import products, as well as external economic environment).
- Analyzing labor market performance and key trends.
- Expanding and improving econometric models and databases used for nowcasting, short-term projections, and analysis of key macroeconomic indicators, including testing and applying new models.
- Carrying out policy research and empirical studies/analysis to support policy formulation and optimal monetary policy decision-making.
- Producing broad-based research and analysis on the external and domestic economic environment, payment systems, external sector stability, and financial stability, as well as compiling, storing, and enhancing relevant quantitative research data.
- Publishing research findings and delivering them to relevant institutions as policy recommendations.
III. FUNCTIONS OF THE STATISTICS AND DATA ANALYSIS DIVISION
The Statistics and Data Analysis Division is responsible for compiling and processing Mongolia’s monetary, financial, and external sector statistics in accordance with internationally accepted standards, methodologies, approved regulations, and reporting templates, and for disseminating them to the public on a regular basis. The division ensures the accuracy, consistency, and accessibility of statistical data, implements data governance across the institution, organizes the development and operation of big data systems, and supports data-driven decision-making.
The main functions of the Division are to:
- Compile, process, and disseminate monetary, financial, and external sector statistics in accordance with approved standards, methodologies, and established release calendars;
- Produce and disseminate the Bank of Mongolia’s statistical bulletin and core datasets, including monetary aggregates, financial sector indicators, and external sector statistics, on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis;
- Develop, update, and implement statistical methodologies, metadata, reporting frameworks, and data collection instruments in line with international standards, ensuring coherence and comparability of statistics;
- Improve data coverage, quality, and accessibility aligned with international standards, ensuring the accuracy, consistency, timeliness, and reliability of statistical outputs.
- Collaborate with international and domestic organizations to improve data coverage, quality, and accessibility, and to further enhance statistical methodologies;
- Develop and manage big data systems, including data collection, integration, processing, storage, protection, and utilization, within a unified policy and standards framework, thereby increasing data value and supporting data-driven decision-making.