The effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in a resource-rich economy: The case of Mongolia

Foreign Trade Review

Gan-Ochir Doojav

C51, F14, F32, C32

J-curve, Marshall–Lerner condition, exchange rate adjustment, Trade balance model, VECM

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J-curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk.